How can Evgenia Medvedeva keep her World crown?
Season 2015/2016 is over. It's time to rest, think about the next season and to prepare it. Time to get some thoughts. It's hard to become a World Champion but it's harder to keep this precious title.
Evgenia Medvedeva: The new russian prodigy
Evgenia Medvedeva, 16 years old figure skater from Russia, won her first World title in senior category for her first senior season. The Junior World 2015 reigning did an amazing season. Now, the most important question is how she might stay on the top of the world. As you know there is 2 programs to perform: The Short Program ( SP duration: 2min 50) and the Free Skating ( FS duration: 4min).
Boston, World Figure Skating Championships, Evgenia finished third after the short program with 73.76 total. Gracie Gold ( USA) won this program with 76.43. Anna Pogorilya (Russia), second with 73.98. Unfortunately, Gold did a below-par performance on the free skating. Evegnia set a new world record on her FS, 150.10.
I think Medvedeva should keep the ambitious structure of her SP. Yes, a really ambitious program and also a risky bet. All jumps arranged in the second part of the program. It means she received a 10% bonus added to their Base Value ( BV), that for her 3 jumps.
The short program is the first trial of the competition. It's important to be the leader, it's a real psychological advantage.
What is the key for the second World title?
Doing an optimized short program, how? Let's talk first mathematics. This is a comparison of the Total Element Score of the short program. I put the total of Base Value, the TES obtained and the percentage of this benefit.
As you can see clearly, Anna Pogorilaya gained the best of Grade Of Execution ( 39.77 points, +23.89%) according her Base value ( 32.00 points). It means she optimized and succeed all elements of her program. I wrote an article about Anna and her reliability druing this season 2015/2016.
Reliability, the next step
Imagine if Evgenia should do all her technical elements as she is able to do ( For example, during her SP of Grand Prix Final 2015, same base value but she transformed 40.20 TES), it could be another result. With 23.77% ( Average of Gold and Pogoliraya's GEO %), she could have a TES around 42.59 points. A huge different.
It's a great challenge to perform as expected during an important event. You must be regular and practice your programs to get experience to be ready for the World Championships.
Short program, 73.76 points
As you can notice on this video, Evgenia did almost all technicals elements with a GOE+2 ( Grade Of Execution), only the triple flip was Base Value or minus 1. This jump should be executed with a GOE+2, it means + 1.40 points in extra on the TES. It's quite difficult to get a GEO+3. For that, you need to do 6 or more bullets (For example, for spins: see below).
On the layback spin level 4 ( LSp4), she had almost GEO+3 from all judges. I think with a hard work on spins and the step sequence ( StSq4), the TES could increase between 0.85 till 1 point. If you count a good execution ( GEO+2) of the single jump, we are talking around 2.50 points.
There is also now a new factor to take on: Medvedeva is World Champion. Yes, in the mind of judges, it counts. So, even if she would start first of her group, the Program Component Score ( PCS, artistic score), would be different. Specially if she would skate good all the program.
Free Skating, 150.10 points.
I wish her the best for the next season.....